Gold is set for another record performance in 2026, a Reuters poll showed, as analysts ramp up their forecasts, with geopolitical uncertainty and robust central bank buying still the main drivers.
A poll of 30 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks returned a median gold forecast of $4,746.50 per troy ounce for 2026, the highest annual forecast in Reuters polls dating back to 2012, and compared with $4,275 estimated in October.
Gold’s recent surge has prompted analysts to raise their forecasts multiple times. A year ago, a similar poll showed an average forecast of just $2,700 for 2026. COMMODS-GOLD
“We are entering a period in which the legitimacy and resilience of the institutions and systems that have underpinned global economic and geopolitical stability for decades are being tested in ways not seen in a generation,” said David Russell, CEO at precious metals dealer and broker GoldCore.
Gold’s rally took it to all-time highs just shy of $5,600 on January 29 before prices plunged to $4,403 an ounce on Monday, with the meltdown and profit-taking sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve chair.
Analysts believe the factors driving gold – including geopolitical risks, robust central bank buying, concerns about Fed independence, rising U.S. debt, trade uncertainty, and de-dollarisation – will continue to support the safe-haven asset in 2026.
“Gold’s thematic drivers remain positive and we believe investors’ rationale for gold (and precious) allocations will not have changed,” analysts at Deutsche Bank said.
Analysts expect central banks to keep adding to their gold reserves as they diversify and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, although jewellery demand is likely to contract further in key Asian regions due to high prices.