Hedge funds favour short-dated, convertible bonds if Fed’s Powell leaves early

Hedge funds say they are prepared if U.S. President Donald Trump fires Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before his term expires next year. The dollar briefly tumbled on Wednesday and long-dated Treasury yields rose on reports that Trump is likely to fire Powell soon. Trump denied the reports.

Trump has repeatedly criticised the Fed chief for not cutting rates quickly enough.
Four hedge funds shared four ideas on how to trade an early Powell departure. Their views do not represent recommendations or trading positions, which they cannot reveal for regulatory reasons.

1/ RBC BLUEBAY ASSET MANAGEMENT
* Macro economic fund
* Size: part of the $491 billion RBC Global Asset Management
* Founded in 2001
* Key trade: Buy 2-year U.S. Treasuries, sell 30-year Treasuries
Trump has said that he would “love” it if Powell were to resign, and has called for interest rates to be cut to 1%. The current range for the key Fed funds rate is 4.25%-4.5%.
A new Fed chair would be pushed to cut rates, lowering front end yields, said Mark Dowding, CIO for BlueBay fixed income. Bond yields move inversely to price.

2/ FOURIER ASSET MANAGEMENT
* Convertible bond specialist
* Size: $10 million
* Founded in 2024
* Key trade: Buy Coinbase convertible bonds
Orlando Gemes, CIO and co-founder of Fourier Asset Management, favours convertible bonds issued by crypto exchange Coinbase. These bonds, which provide a steady income and can turn into shares at pre-agreed prices, are the fund’s main focus.
“Our preference is the 2026 bond given the conversion price of $370.45, while the 2030 bond has a conversion price of $333.55,” said Gemes.
Gemes does not expect a huge market reaction initially if Powell is fired but believes the result will be inflationary. If rates are cut, the yields on these convertible bonds will fall.

3/ COLOMA CAPITAL FUTURES
* Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA)
* Size: Cannot disclose for regulatory reasons
* Founded in 2009
* Key trade: sell the dollar
David Burkart, founder and CIO of Caloma Capital, says he would sell the dollar against a basket of currencies.
“A Powell replacement is extremely likely to be dovish and thus the interest rate differential between the U.S. and other countries will narrow, reducing the relative attractiveness of the dollar,” said Burkart.
Longer term, the U.S. debt and tax burden is increasing and risks slower U.S. growth which should also weigh on the dollar, he said.

Source: Reuters